NCAAF
(10/5/22) 7:00 PM Eastern.
Spread: SMU +3.5 / UCF -3.5
Moneyline: Rams +110 / 49ers -130
Total: Over / Under 63.5
The SMU Mustangs take on the UCF Knights in an AAC Conference match-up on Wednesday night. This marks their first in conference game. This game was originally scheduled for last Saturday but was ultimately pushed back due to Hurricane Ian. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00p.m. eastern time at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
SMU (2-2)
The Mustangs got off to a hot 2-0 start but then proceeded to drop 2 straight to a pair of Power 5 teams. They lost to a 4-1 Maryland team by 7 and a 4-0 TCU team by 8. SMU currently averages the 13th most yards per game at 506.3 and the majority of that comes through the air. 5th year QB Tanner Mordecai leads the offense to the tune of 353 passing yards a game, ranking 9th. He had a stellar 2021 campaign for SMU, throwing for 3,625 yards and 39 TD’s while completing 67.8% of his passes. His completion % is down to 58.1% in 2022, contributed to stiff early season competition. WR Rashee Rice has been electric, racking up 565 yards on 34 catches through 4 games. WR Jake Bailey is coming off a monster game vs TCU, reeling in 8 passes for 163 yards and a TD. He missed the first two games of the season. Tre Siggers is the Mustangs leading back, he ran for 3 touchdowns vs TCU.
SMU’s defense hasn’t been great but some of these numbers are flawed due to their level of competition. Maryland and TCU had their way with them but those are likely the best offenses they’ll see all season. Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa was the best QB they’ll face and TCU ranks 3rd in the FBS in PTS scored per game. Against North Texas and Lamar this Mustangs defense allowed just 26 combined points. SMU was able to get home vs a good TCU offensive line, racking up 5 sacks last week.
UCF (3-1)
Gus Malzahn and the Knights are off to a strong 3-1 start in 2022. They dropped a game vs Louisville in week 2 but took care of business against FAU and Georgia Tech. Mobile QB John Rhys Plumlee has helped lead the knights to the 6th best rushing attack in College Football. They average 274.5 rushing yards a game and Plumlee leads the team with 390. Starting RB Isaiah Bowser has 237 yards rushing but averages just 3.4 yards per carry. The passing game needs works, they rank 180th at 206.8 passing yards per game, last week Plumlee completed 8 of 16 passes for just 49 yards and an interception.
Their defense has been stellar, they have yet to allow more than 20 points through 4 games this season and allow an average of just 13.5 pts per game. UCF’s defense has held passers to just a 53% completion rate and 205.7 passing yards a game but they haven’t faced much competition. FAU was the strongest passing attack that they faced, and they rank 91st in pass yards per game. They have let up an average of 146.8 rushing yards a game which ranks 8th in the American Conference.
The Pick
SMU Mustangs +3.5. This SMU team is much better than their 2-2 record suggests. They lost two one possession games to a pair of strong FBS teams in (4-1) Maryland and (4-0) TCU. They had no issue moving the ball up and down on their defenses and I expect that trend to continue despite the Knight’s defense looking strong on paper. UCF has yet to play a competent passing offense, FAU’s 91st ranked passing offense was the toughest opponent they’ve faced all year. SMU ranks 13th in total yards per game at 506.3 and 9th in the country with 353 passing yards per game. UCF’s defense has also been run on, allowing 146.8 rushing yards a game, ranking 8th in the American Conference. SMU is a pass first offense, but they’ve been effective when they’ve run. They’re going to be able to score and if the Knight’s fall behind they’re in trouble. They rank 180th in the nation with just 206.8 yards passing a game and just last week their starting QB completed just 8 of 16 passes for 49 yards and an interception. There’s also the Hurricane Ian factor, over 92% of UCF’s athletes are from the state of Florida. They’ve had much more important things to worry about than football this past week and it’s also an off-schedule Wednesday night game, their home field advantage won’t be as strong. SMU will be the sharper team, take the points.
