MLB (3 Picks)
7:10pm est: STL Cardinals -1.5 (+105) (3 Units)
Strength vs Weakness both ways. The Cardinals bats excel vs LHP while the Brew crew struggle vs LHP. The Brewers ranked 23rd vs LHP in 2022. Their best bats are lefty. STL was the #1 offense vs LHP pitching last year, slugging .465 with an OPS of .808. All but 1 of those guys remain in this year’s line-up. Goldschmidt and Arenado torched Lauer in 2022. They each faced Lauer 9 times, Goldy had 3 hits, 2 HR’s, and 2 Walks. Arenado had 3 hits, 2 HR’s and 1 Walk. Lauer allowed 5 ER across 6 innings in his only start vs STL at home last year.
Lauer wasn’t bad in his debut, giving up 5 Hits, 1 HR, 2 Walks, and 2 ER in 5.1 IP but that came against a below-average Cubs line-up. Lauer really struggled in the spring. He finished with an 11.57 era, batters hit .407 against him, his WHIP was 2.49, and his GO/AO ration was .53. The ball’s known to jump off the bat at American Family Field, if Lauer can’t keep the ball down, it’s going to go out.
STL SP Jordan Montgomery was solid in his debut. Facing a talented TOR line-up, he surrendered 3 ER in 5 innings of work. All 3 runs came in the 2nd inning as he fell victim to tough luck. 2 of the 3 hits that inning had an exit Velo under 71 MPH. He was very sharp to finish spring, giving up just 1 ER in his last 2 starts (10 IP).
8:10pm est: LAD/ARI Over 9.5 -110 (4 Units)
These two just faced off and pitched quite well. Fools’ gold. Both starters have proven to be average to below average arms in recent years and there’s great park conditions in AZ. 85 with light winds blowing out to right field. AZ is the 10th most hitter friendly park since 2020. It would rank even higher, but they close the Dome because of the Arizona heat. That Roof’s going to be open today, letting the warm weather carry that ball a little bit further.
Noah Syndergaard had an era of 5.79 through spring. He gave up 11 ER in his final 2 starts (9.1 IP) of spring. Zach Davies had a 12.91 era in spring. He also gave up 11 ER in his final 2 starts (5.2 IP). Last year the Dodgers hit .279 with an .809 OPS vs Davies. The LAD had the #1 offense in baseball last year with an OPS of .775.
So far this series the offenses have garnered plenty of opportunities. The Dodgers are 2 for 13 with RISP, leaving 17 guys on base in their first two games. The D-Backs are 4 for 18 with RISP, leaving 12 guys on. Both of those games were tight and required the best out of each bullpen. 3rd game in 3 days and they’re going at it with depleted bullpens. This is already the 7th head-to-head meeting between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks just 10 days into the season. That is extremely favorable to the offenses. They’ll bust through today.
9:07pm est: Angels ML -120 (3 Units)
The Dodgers unlocked Tyler Anderson and he’s been rolling ever since. He pitched to a 2.57 era in 2022 and looks great in 2023. He had a 1.35 era in the spring, giving up just 2 ER, a couple solo homers. Then he came out and pitched 6 scoreless innings to start the season. Despite Toronto’s line-up being deep with RH batters, they’re actually worse vs LHP. They have an OPS of .678 vs LHP compared to .780 vs RHP in 2023. They were also worse vs LHP in 2022.
Jose Berrios has been a nightmare for Toronto. He was supposed to anchor their rotation, but he’s been anything but. He had a 5.23 era for TOR in 2022, 6.36 when on the road. He was ripped in spring, 12.71 era, .360 BA against, 1.94 WHIP. He got ripped to open the season too, giving up 8 ER in 5.2 IP at Kansas City. The Royals rank dead last hitting .180 so far in 2023. Berrios made 1 trip to Anaheim last year and it went very poorly. He gave up 6 ER in just 2.1 IP.
