Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (4/20/25)

MLB

3 Picks (10 Units).

1:35PM EST: Reds ML +170 (4 Units).

Cinci was going to start Carson Spiers in place of Nick Lodolo (paternity list) today, but he pitched 4 innings in a lopsided loss yesterday. He was just placed on the IL and Randy Wynne has been called up. Wynne has a 3.04 ERA with a .96 WHIP in 4 AAA starts. He'll likely be asked to record 9-12 outs in this game. The Reds will open with Lefty Brent Suter. He's no stranger to starting games and has been a reliable reliever through the years. He has a 2.7 ERA on the season and posted a 3.15 ERA in 47 games for the Reds last season. He's a lefty and Baltimore's 29th in OPS vs LHP. With Suter just opening the Orioles didn’t set their lineup like they normally would facing a left-handed starter. With a clean first from Suter, Wynne could come and go seeing the top of Baltimore’s lineup just once. The Reds bullpen is well rested, and their top arms have pitched very well. Ashcraft and Alexis Diaz have yet to allow an earned run this season and Tony Santillan has a 1.59 ERA in 11 games. Then there's Taylor Rogers with a 2.57 ERA and Ian Gibaut who's allowed just 1 run in his last 8 appearances.

BAL SP Charlie Morton has an 8.84 ERA and 5.36 xERA. Some tough luck but the metrics aren't good regardless. His Hard-Hit % is at 52.5 and his average exit velo is in the bottom 7% of MLB. At 41 years old he's lost some juice. His average Fastball Velo was 94.9 in 2023, 94.1 in 2024, and currently 93.6 in 2025. He had a 3.64 ERA in 2023 and a 4.19 ERA in 2024. His BB/9 is 5.4 and K/BB at 1.73. His career averages in those same categories are 3.4 and 2.59. We're only 4 starts in but he hasn’t had a decent outing yet. At 41 years old the wheels may have just finally come off. The Reds lead the league in OPS over the last week.

1:37PM EST: Blue Jays ML +100 (3 Units).

SEA SP Luis Castillo got roughed up for 6 runs in his only road start at Cinci his last time out but has otherwise been sharp. Odds are he's much better today, but he did have a 4.15 ERA on the road last season. Toronto's offense has been a bit more productive of late, averaging 4.4 runs over their last 7 games, scoring at least 3 in each one. The Mariners bullpen's also heavily taxed and at their most important spots. Their top 2 relievers, including their closer, have pitched 3 of the last 4 days.

TOR SP Easton Lucas struggled with command in his most recent start and got hit around by the Braves. Prior to that the young Southpaw tossed 2 scoreless outings allowing a combined 4 hits. He's on extra rest and making his 3rd start at Home. He's also facing a Mariners lineup that's batting .194 with a .607 OPS vs LHP. He just needs to go 5 innings before passing it off to a Blue Jays bullpen that's been very good. They have 5 different relievers with double digit appearances with an ERA below 2.8.

1:40PM EST: Royals ML +185 (3 Units).

This is one of those weird in division exceptions that just doesn't make a ton of sense. Tarik Skubal is as good as it gets and yet the Royals have given him issues over the years. Since becoming a mainstay in the Tigers rotation, his worst start in each of the last 4 seasons has come against Kansas City. He's allowed 5 runs at least once to the Royals in each of those 4 seasons. It's not like the Royals offense has been any good throughout that time. In fact, they've been well below average for the majority. In 15 career games (13 starts) against the Royals, Skubal is 3-9 with a 4.83 ERA. KC is 29th in OPS on the season but they're 14th against LHP. With the Tigers winning each of the first 3 games of this 4-game set, their top relievers have been taxed. Their best performing reliever was just put on the IL and their 2nd and 4th have pitched back-to-back days.

KC SP Michael Wacha is more than capable of holding down a Tigers offense that's 23rd in OPS over the last week. Going back their last 7 games Detroit's scored 3, 7, 6, 1, 0, 9, and 1. Wacha has a 4.36 ERA through 4 starts, allowing more than 3 runs once. He allowed 1 run on 4 IP in his 2025 debut and 2 runs on 5.2 IP vs the Twins. The Orioles scored 4 runs on him and the Yankees scored 3. Outside of his first start he's pitched into the 6th in each outing. He likely won't be asked to today unless he's pitching very well. The Royals have off tomorrow, and their top relievers need work. They quietly have one of the best bullpens in baseball through the early going. They're 15th in ERA but 19 of their 28 earned runs have come from 2 relievers. Excluding those 2 there's just 2 other relievers in their bullpen with an ERA above 1.23. One of the other 2 is John Schreiber who has a 3.38 ERA this season and a 2.7 ERA in 7 April appearances. Even if Skubal's lights out, the Royals have the ability to match with a bullpen edge today.