MLB
3 Picks.
FOLLOW THE UNIT INSTRUCTIONS. ASK IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND.
If you're unfamiliar with certain terms you can contact the live chat for an explanation!
6:35PM EST: Twins ML +140 (3 Units)
Chris Paddack was once the highly touted prospect that his counterpart Grayson Rodriguez is. Unfortunately he's battled injuries making just 9 appearances dating back to 2022. He's been solid this season allowing 2 Earned Runs in each of his first two starts against the Brewers and Dodgers. Two of the top offenses in baseball. His Hard-Hit rate is just 34.5% and his average exit Velo ranks in the 7th percentile. Length has been an issue though and he's unlikely to see any Orioles batters for the 3rd time today but that's fine. The Twins bullpen ranks 3rd in baseball with a 2.17 ERA and their best arms are fresh. Their bullpen was only needed for 6 outs a couple days ago and after Varland struggled to start yesterday's game they only used their long reliever for 3 innings.
Baltimore starter Grayson Rodriguez has been pitching well. He did struggle early against Boston but eventually settled in. The Red Sox offense just weren't able to cash in on their opportunities. His xERA is nearly a full point higher than his actual ERA and his 43.7 Hard-Hit % falls in the 29th percentile. Rodriguez's has done a good job staying in the zone this season but he has a history of losing it. He's also a high strikeout guy and both of those drive pitch count. The Twins offense grades out in the middle of the pack over the last week but they do strikeout a lot. If Rodriguez is on he likely won't go past the 6th inning. The furthest he's pitched is 1 out into the 6th across his first 3 starts. That's important because the Orioles bullpen is taxed. Their setup man and Closer have both pitched in back-to-back days and 3 of their last 5. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde used Cano 3 days in a row just once last season. That was in September and because he threw a combined 12 pitches in the first 2. Cano's thrown 42 the last 2 days. Kimbrel was with Philly but didn't throw 3 days straight a single time last year. This early in the season those two won't go. Oriole's relievers not named Kimbrel are 0 for 3 in Save Opportunities. Good Value on this. Paddack doesn't need to do much and if he can just replicate his first couple starts the Twins will be in great shape. Minnesota has won both games Paddack's started in so far. 7:40PM EST: KC/CWS Under 8 (4 Units). Brady Singer takes the mound for KC and he's been elite since adding the 4-Seamer to his arsenal. Covered that in his last start (CLICK HERE). He has a .98 ERA after 3 starts, .175 opponent BA, and a .88 WHIP. He pitched against these White Sox a couple weeks ago and gave up just 1 run (Solo HR) on 2 hits and 1 Walk over 6.1 IP. The White Sox offense is averaging 2.1 runs per game this season and is dead last in pretty much every major offensive category. They've failed to score more than 1 run in 7 of their last 11 games.
Jonathan Cannon is making his MLB Debut for the White Sox today. Being drafted in 2022 he climbed the White Sox farm system rather quickly. He allowed just 1 run in each of his last 2 spring appearances (8IP) and has a 2.79 ERA after two AAA starts. He uses a 5-pitch mix to induce a ton of ground balls. That mix will really help should he struggle with location battling nerves in his first start. His ability to escape bad situations courtesy of the ground ball is also a safety net. There's also not much pressure debuting for a 2-14 White Sox team. We like him to have a solid debut and it's because this Royals offense has gone cold. They were on fire to start the season but have scored 2 or less in 3 of their last 4 games. They scored 2 runs on 5 hits yesterday and 1 run on 3 hits the day before. The White Sox bullpen ranks 16th in ERA and pitched 4 shutout innings against KC last night. Their top relievers have pitched very well this season and everyone's available.
It's also a pitcher’s day in Chicago. Calling for rain which could force this game to be delayed or postponed and 20+ MPH winds blowing in from Center Field. Wet grounds to slow down ground balls and heavy in blowing wind to knock down fly balls.
9:40PM EST: CIN/SEA Under 7 (3 Units). CIN SP Hunter Greene is coming off a rough outing at Home against the Red-Hot Brewers offense but was sharp in his first two. The former #2 overall pick has elite stuff but can struggle with command. He was the victim of some tough luck against Milwaukee which is why his xERA is 2.49 compared to his 4.86 ERA. He has a 30.1% K rate and a 34.1 % Hard Hit Rate. The Mariners offense scored some runs last night but they're 26th in OPS this season and has scored 3+ runs in back-to-back games just twice this year and it was all in the same series against Milwaukee. There's only 3 Mariners with prior at Bats against Greene and they're 2 for 10.
Logan Gilbert starts for Seattle, and he's been one of the most consistent starters in recent years. He posted a 3.73 ERA over 32 starts in 2023 and a 3.2 ERA over 32 starts in 2022. He has a 2.66 ERA so far this season with a pair of Gems under his belt. He threw 7 innings of 1 run ball against Boston in his season debut and 7.2 innings of 1 run ball against Toronto his last time out. In between that was a start @ Milwaukee that saw him give up 4 earned runs over 5.2 Innings Pitched. The Brewers hit 3 homeruns against him. Brewers are blasting homeruns against everyone at the moment.
Both starting pitchers get more outs through the air compared to on the ground. There won't be much juice on the ball tonight though as this game starts in the low 50's before dropping into the 40's. The Mariners bullpen ranks 7th in ERA this season as well. The Reds bullpen got off to a rough start, but their top relief options haven't allowed a run in 8 straight and they're fresh after yesterday.
