Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (10/1/24)

MLB

2 Picks.

4:08PM: Royals ML +130 (3 Units).

Ragans and Burnes have been two of the American League's best pitchers this year and they're both on fire. In the Month of September Ragans posted a 1.08 ERA, .169 opponent BA, and 1.0 WHIP. Burns had a 1.2 ERA, .194 opponent BA, and .93 WHIP. Ragans has a 2.87 road ERA this season and tossed 6.1 shutout innings in Baltimore allowing just 1 hit earlier this season. It's ultimately a toss-up between the two starters. Burnes has the experience with a couple playoff starts under his belt. He had a Home playoff start for Milwaukee last year and gave up 4 ER, including 3 Homeruns and that's after posting a 2.51 ERA in September.

The pressure's on Burnes and the Orioles. Burnes was traded for to make these starts and he's also set to become a free agent. There are tens of millions of dollars on the line here. The Orioles also blew it in the playoffs last year, getting swept by Texas in the divisional round. They also blew it at the end of the season, letting the Yankees take the AL East. Kansas City wasn't supposed to be here. There's no expectations for them. Playing with house money.

The Orioles bullpen is a problem and not built for post-season play. They Royals bullpen has been stellar and it's a big reason they're playing in this game today. There's 1 Royals reliever with an ERA above 3.18 over the last 30 days on this roster. There are 3 who haven't allowed a single run, not even unearned. Their closer's also a perfect 6 for 6 in save opportunities. If Ragans delivers, it's advantage KC once these starters are pulled. Playing the value here.

8:38PM EST: Padres -1.5 +135 (3 Units). Braves played a Doubleheader against the Mets yesterday with playoff spots on the line. They were up 3-0 before allowing 6 runs in the top of the 8th. They answered with 4 runs taking a 7-6 lead but then blew that as well. Doing so forced them to use all their best pitchers again in the 2nd game as they needed a win to make the playoffs. With Chris Sale dealing with back spasms and Max Fried set to start tomorrow, they don't have any great options. Reynaldo Lopez made a start 3 days ago and threw 1 inning of relief yesterday. Charlie Morton started 2 days ago. Schwellenbach threw 7 innings in the loss to the Mets. They likely start Bryce Elder, but it could be AJ-Smith Shawver. Elder has a 6.52 ERA in 10 starts this year and Shawver has a 4.85 ERA at AAA.

Michael King will make his first career post-season start. He has a 2.15 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star Break and posted a 1.57 ERA in 4 September starts. The current Braves roster has a .120 BA in 25 plate appearances against King. King hasn't faced Atlanta this season. He's got one of the best bullpens backing him up. Even if he flops due to nerves or for whatever season, they'll unload a very deep bullpen. They have 4 frontline starters and can trust them to deliver in games 2 and 3 if needed. Not like they need to save their bullpen.