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MLB

2 Picks

6:40PM EST: Guardians ML +105 (2 Units)

CHC SP Shota Imanaga is as good as they come when he's on but he's a fly ball pitcher that gets hurt by the long ball. Cleveland's stadium ranks 8th in MLB with a 113 HR Park Factor (100 average). The Guardians hit Lefties well and are tied with the 3rd most HR's vs LHP. The Chicago bullpen isn't great, and it nearly blew a 7-run lead against the White Sox of all teams just the other day.

CLE SP Ben Lively has allowed 2ER or less in 14 of his 20 starts and 3ER or less in 17. He just allowed more than 3ER for the first time at Home against a hot Arizona lineup. He's allowed 2ER or less in 7 of his 9 Home Starts and has a 3.14 ERA at Progressive Field. Cleveland's #1 bullpen struggled a bit to start August, but they've been lights out over their last 5 games. Their Closer Emmanuel Clase has pitched back-to-back days, but he had 4 days off before it and has pitched 3 straight days before. At this point in the season, we trust he's available for tonight.

9:45PM EST: Giants ML -110 (2Units).

ATL SP Chris Sale hasn't been as sharp in his last 2 starts. He's only allowed 5 runs (4 earned) across 10.1 IP, but he's given up 15 hits and 5 walks. He's up to 127.2 IP on the season and you've got to go back to 2019 for the last time he's thrown more than that. He's been injured quite a bit but 2019 was the last time he pitched the majority of the season, and he finished with 147.1 IP. He hasn't pitched enough innings to be qualified since 2017. In 2019 his ERA was 1.32 points higher after the All-Star break compared to before. Have to wonder just how much juice is left in Chris Sale's arm right now. The SF Giants are also considerably stronger vs LHP, ranking 6th in OPS. Atlanta's bullpen has really struggled, and they just blew a 6-run lead in the 8th inning yesterday.

SF SP Blake Snell has a 1.67 ERA in 4 starts since the break. Post All-Star Break Snell is a thing. In his career he has a 3.98 ERA (106 Starts) before the break and a 2.41 after (86 Starts). Truly one of the wildest career splits in baseball. The Braves offense is also facing the post Coors Field effect. The Altitude takes a toll on the unconditioned body, but it changes how the pitches come in. Tends to take time to readjust and it's the reason Colorado's offense is always so putrid on the road. The Mets offense was playing well going into Coors and scored 9 runs in their final game there. They scored just 1 run in their following 3 game set vs Seattle. SF also has the 6th most pitcher friendly park in baseball.