Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans NFL Free, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 10/23/22

NFL

(10/23/22) 1:00 PM Eastern.

Spread: Colts +2.5 / Titans -2.5

Moneyline: Colts +120 / Titans -140

Total: Over / Under 42.5

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WinMyBets NFL Pick of the Week features an AFC South rivalry between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. The Titans took the first game between these division foes by a score of 24-17. The Titans host with the chance of a series sweep that’ll plant them firmly on top of the division. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00p.m. eastern time at Nissan Stadium.

Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1)

It’s been a bumpy ride for the Indianapolis Colts in 2022. They opened the season with a tie against Houston, got shutout by Jacksonville, then stunned everyone with a win over Kansas City. They followed that up with a 24-17 loss to the Titans, beat the Broncos in overtime courtesy of 4 field goals, then exploded offensively for 34 in a win over the Jaguars last week.

Matt Ryan without question played his best game of the season last week. Completing 42 of 58 passes (72.4%) for 389 yards and 3 touchdowns. Most importantly, he had 0 turnovers and wasn’t sacked a single time. Through the first 5 games of the season, Ryan threw 7 interceptions, lost 3 fumbles, and was sacked 21 times.

The Colts struggled to find the right offensive line combination early in the season, but everything clicked last week when Dennis Kelly took over at Left Tackle. The Veteran allowed just 1 pressure on 54 pass blocking snaps. The Colts came into the season with 3 very good offensive lineman, G Quenton Nelson, C Ryan Kelly, and RT Braden Smith. Dennis Kelly just solidified the LT spot with his play vs JAX. Starting RG Matt Pryor still struggled but this unit put together it’s best performance of the season against Jacksonville.

Indy’s offensive skill players haven’t been able to stay on the field. Michael Pittman, Jonathon Taylor, and Nyheim Hines have all missed time, effecting their continuity. The good news for Indy, Michael Pittman is fully healthy and coming off a monster performance that saw him catch 13 of 16 targets for 134 yards and both Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have returned to practice and are expected to play this week.

Last week was the best Indy’s offense looked all season and they have their full compliment of playmakers this week. Frank Reich completely flipped the script and went with a no huddle, up tempo, short passing game and it led to the Colts season high 34 points. Look for that to continue against Tennessee this week.

The defense remains a strength for Indianapolis. Despite their offense turning the ball over 11 times, they allow an average of 20 points per game. They even held KC’s potent offense to just 17 points. They’ve also done it without their best player, Shaq Leonard. The LB returned against Tennessee after recovering from a back injury but fell victim to friendly fire early in the game, giving him a concussion and breaking his nose. He also returned to practice this week.

The Colts defensive line has done a good job of getting to the QB, they have 17 sacks on the season, tied for 8th. The group is led by interior defensive lineman Deforest Buckner. He has 3 sacks to go along with 1 PD and 1 FF. He dealt with an Elbow injury earlier in the year but he’s fully healthy now. Unfortunately, DE Kwity Paye came down with an ankle injury against these Titans a couple of weeks ago. He was in the midst of a breakout season, racking up 3 sacks in 4 games. He’s questionable for this game.

The Colts have a strong back-end. CB Stephon Gillmore is capable of shutting down any receiver while Kenny Moore ranks as one of the best slot corners in the game. Safety Julian Blackmon is expected to make his return to the field this week after missing time with an injury. The Colts allow an average of 202.7 passing yards per game, good for 10th in the NFL. Their rush defense ranks 22nd.

Tennessee Titans (3-2)

The Titans looked like one of the league’s biggest disappointments after losing their season opener to the NY Giants and getting blown out 41-7 by Buffalo in week 2. But then they went on to win 3 straight games heading into their bye week. They’ve played in 4 one possession games this year, winning their three games by a combined 13 points.

The offense has struggled, Derrick Henry is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season, down from his career average of 4.8. Tannehill is also struggling to move the ball through the air after the loss of A.J. Brown. To make matters worse the man they drafted to replace Brown, Treylon Burks, is currently on the IR.

The offensive line has been flat out poor, they lost too much talent from years past and on top of that their starting LT Taylor Lewan is out for the season. Tannehill’s been sacked 12 times through 5 games, and 5 of those came last week against Washington.

This Titans offense ranks 31st in yards per game and just 21st in rushing yards per game after ranking in the top 5 in 2021. Henry did go for 114 yards on 22 touches against these Colts in week 4. All 24 points against the Colts came in the first half for Tennessee, they were shutout in the 2nd half. Tannehill had an efficient day, completing 17 of 21 passes for just 137 yards but he did have 2 touchdowns.

Tennessee’s defense hasn’t been great either, they cleaned it up a bit the past few weeks but still rank in the bottom half. Ranking 20th in points per game and 29th in yards per game. They’ve been stout against the run, allowing 103.2 rushing yards per game (5th) but rank dead last vs the pass, letting up 287.6 passing yards per game. They do get safety Malik Hooker and pass rusher Bud Dupree back for this week.

The defensive line play from Denico Autry and Jeffrey Simmons has been stellar. Autry has 4 sacks from the defensive end position and made his presence felt the last time he played Indy. He had 2 sacks and a forced fumble back in week 4. Jeffrey Simmons has 3.5 sacks playing on the inside. Simmons is just a beast of a DT and a large reason why the Titans have been so stout against the run. He also has 3 pass deflections on the year. This Titans defense held Jonathon Taylor to just 42 rushing yards on 20 carries.

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The Pick

Indianapolis Colts +3. Matt Ryan and the Indy offense has clicked. Head Coach Frank Reich scraped the ground and pound and went full no huddle, up tempo, quick passing game. It led to Matt Ryan shredding a Jaguars defense that ranked in the top 10 in every major defensive category for 389 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. The Colts figured out their offensive line combination in that game, Dennis Kelly locked down the LT position after allowing just 1 pressure on 54 pass blocking snaps. Matt Ryan and the Colts were slow out of the gate as they dealt with injuries, but they’ve clicked, and all their playmakers are back for this week. The Titans pass defense has also been a major issue for Tennessee, ranking dead last allowing 287.6 passing yards per game. Matt Ryan threw for 356 yards the first time these two played too. The Colts just gave that game away, turning the ball over 3 times. They outgained Tennessee 365 yards to 243. The Colts defense shut out the Titans in the 2nd half when their offense stopped putting them in bad spots. All-Pro Colts LB Shaq Leonard returns this week, he played limited snaps in the first meeting and All-Pro DT Deforest Buckner is also full go after dealing with an elbow injury in their first match-up. This Titans offense ranks 31st in yards per game and with WR Treylon Burks and starting LT Taylor Lewan on the IR, it’s going to be very difficult to move the ball through the air against the Colts 10th ranked pass defense. Derrick Henry hasn’t been nearly as effective this year either, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, down from a career 4.8. The Colts just have to clean-up the turnovers from their first match-up and they take this one easy. They travel well, covering ATS 12 of their L17 road games and 7 of the last 10 games in Tennessee. In fact, the road team is 7-1 ATS the last 8 times these two have met.

WinMyBets NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts +3.