NFL
1 Pick
8:15PM EST: Rams +3 (5 Units).
The Rams get Cooper Kupp back and Puka Nacua's also trending towards suiting up tonight. Kupp's the big ticket here as Minnesota blitzes on 42.5% of dropbacks. Matthew Stafford's been a blitz killer throughout his career. Since joining the Rams in 2021 he averages 8.0 yards per attempt with Kupp on the field compared to 6.5 without when facing the blitz. The Rams and RB Kyren Williams also run between the tackles at the 5th highest rate in Football and Minnesota will be without their ILB and leading tackle Blake Cashman. He still leads the team despite not playing against Detroit last week. Without him DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs had his 2nd best day as a Pro. Overall this Vikings defense hasn't been so great the last few weeks. Going back, they gave up 31 to Detroit, 17 to the Jets, and 29 to the Packers. Rodgers also missed a wide-open game winner or that's a 24-23 Loss at Home. With their Swiss Army Knife back we like McVay and Stafford to find some success.
Defensively the Rams have had some consistency issues, but it's been solid at Home. They're also opposite an offense that's struggled to sustain drives as they've been without their top 2 receivers since Week 2. They allowed 15 at Home to the Raiders last week, securing 4 takeaways and a touchdown. Week prior they let up 24 to Green Bay but also took the ball away and scored with it. Despite future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald retiring the Rams rank 5th in pressure rate this season. That's an area Darnold's really struggled in throughout his career and this year's no different. He's 28th in EPA/Dropback against pressure and takes a sack 25% of the time.
Darnold's thrown an interception in all but 1 game and has 5 fumbles on the season to go with it.
This is also a long road trip for Minnesota on a short week after playing one of the most physical teams in the NFL. There's are some trade rumors involving Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford. Nacuas already come out to speak against it and we doubt the Rams Superbowl winning QB/WR tandem care to get traded either. They play 2 games before the deadline including tonight's. At 2-4 their season's far from over as a win tonight puts them at 3-4 alongside Arizona and San Francisco in the NFC West. Then they face the division leading Seahawks who are currently 4-3 but 0-1 in the division. This is a must win game at Home and we trust the Rams to show out. All but 1 of their 6 games have also been 1 score games and 4 of those came without Cupp and Nacua.
