NCAAF
5 Picks.
12PM: UCLA/Rutgers Under 41 (4 Units).
UCLA hasn't scored more than 17 points so far this season. They're 1-5 and 0-4 in Big 10 Conference play. They took a 10-0 lead into halftime but lost 21-17. The Rutgers defense gave up 42 to Wisconsin last week but didn't allow more than 23 points in any other game this year. Going back, they held Nebraska to 14, Washington to 18, and Virginia Tech to 23 @ VT. Going to see a highly motivated Rutgers defense today and it's a prime rebound spot against a miserable Bruins offense. Their biggest issues have come trying to stop the run. UCLA ranks 131st, averaging just 2.4 YPC.
UCLA's defense has played pretty well despite very little offensive production coupled with too many giveaways. They've had to play some very strong offensive football teams. They allowed 27 @ Penn State, 34 vs Oregon, and 34 @ LSU. Their run defense has been truly elite, allowing 92.5 yards per game (9th) and 3.2 YPC (19th). They held Minnesota to 1.7 YPC last week and Penn State to 2.8 the week before that. Rutgers wants to and is going to run the football. They have 242 rushing attempts to 165 passing. They have a bad QB that's completing just 52.1% of his passes. He went 12/32 (37.5%). for 103 yards and an interception against Wisconsin last week. Week before that 15/37 (40.5%) for 186 yards, 1 TD, and 2 interceptions. Hard to sustain drives with that level of inefficiency and he's going to need to make throws in this game.
3:30PM: Alabama/Tennessee Under 57.5 (3 Units).
First truly hostile road environment for the Crimson Tide. They've gone into Wisconsin and Vanderbilt but those don't compare to Neyland Stadium. The Volunteers defense is the truth, limiting teams to 12.2 points per game. This will be the best offense they'll see to date but they have the defensive line to contain Jalen Milroe. They've seen elusive and mobile QB's in each of their last 3 games and kept each one in check. This will help limit explosive plays for the Tide.
The Volunteers offense has been a mess in SEC play. They scored 23 at Home vs Florida last week in Overtime, 14 @ Arkansas and 25 @ Oklahoma. With how their defense played against OU they really should have scored more. Redshirt Freshman QB Nico Iamaleava has struggled against pressure and pushing the ball down field. He has just 1 touchdown in 3 SEC games. Tennessee's 4th in rushing yards per game and averaging 5.1 YPC. They'll lean on that which will help shorten this game up but Bama's 23rd in rushing yards allowed per carry.
7:00PM EST: Arkansas +2.5 (4 Units).
Both teams are coming off some big wins in their most recent outings, but Arkansas comes into this off a Bye Week. This will also be LSU's first road game in a Month. The last time they traveled they went into SC and won 36-33. They really struggled to contain mobile QB LaNorris Sellers, and they'll have their hands full again with Arkansas's Taylen Green. Arkansas beat Tennessee at Home a couple weeks bac and lost on the road by 4 at Texas A&M the week before that. Those are two of the best defenses in the conference but specifically up front along the defensive line. They get a major drop in competition there specifically. LSU's 2-0 in SEC play but they surrendered 243 rushing yards to South Carolina and 180 rushing yards to Ole Miss. Arkansas's averaging 183.6 rushing yards per game. With Taylen Green's rushing ability their offense should find some success. Especially with 2 weeks to prepare.
Defensively the Razorbacks have allowed 49 total points through 3 SEC games and 2 of those played on the road. They've held all 3 below a 60% completion % and LSU's doing most of their damage through the air. Nussmeier wasn't efficient last week, completing 22 of 51 passes for 337 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 picks. The final touchdown pass coming in Overtime.
7:30PM: Georgia/Texas Over 56.5 (4 Units).
We're selling Texas's #1 ranked scoring defense. Going into Michigan Week 2 was likely their toughest test to date. Their 2 SEC games have come against Oklahoma and Mississippi State, two of the worst offenses in the conference. The Longhorns brough back just 4 starters on defense from last year’s elite unit. The 2 defensive tackles they lost are both wreaking havoc in the NFL. Georgia struggled in their first road game of the year at Kentucky, but they've scored 31 or more in every other game. They came out flat in their 2nd road game at Alabama but stormed back to score 34. Being their 3rd road game, we expect a more consistent performance. QB Carson Beck started for the Dogs last year so he's no stranger to it.
Buying the Longhorns offense that's scored with both Quinn Ewers and Archie Manning at QB. Ewers had some noticeable rust early against a very good Sooners defense and they still scored 34 points on the road. They also went into Michigan and put up 31 points there. This is their first year in the SEC and they get a shot at the top dog. Sark's going to have some special plays just for this one. Georgia's pass defense looks suspect. Mississippi State scored 31 on them with 306 yards passing and 3 touchdowns in Georgia. Alabama dropped 41 on 374 yards passing. At Home Texas should be able to score with Georgia keeping pace.
7:45PM EST: Kentucky -2.5 (3 Units).
Florida starting QB Graham Mertz was lost for the season last week. He was playing very well for the Gators and was on pace to pull off an upset against Tennessee. He then got hurt and freshman DJ Lagway couldn't get it done. Lagway's a great athlete but needs work as a passer. The Wildcat’s defense has been very good this year. They had 1 bad game vs SC in week 2 but they've held everyone else below 20 points. That includes holding Vandy to 20, Ole Miss to 17, and Georgia to 13. All 3 of those teams have better QB play. South Carolina's QB had negative rushing yards and Vandy's averaged 3.8 YPC. They've seen and stopped mobile QBs before. Don't think Lagway's ready for SEC play just yet.
