NCAAF
2 Picks.
12PM EST: Minnesota -2.5 (3 Units).
Just don't believe Illinois is as good as their 6-2 record suggests. They can hang their hat on beating Nebraska and Michigan, but they were boat raced by Oregon and should have been against Penn State. This is the same defense that gave up 536 yards of offense to a 1-6 Purdue team just a few games back. P.J. Fleck's Gophers are known for running the football, but they've aired it out with success of late. MIN starting QB Max Brosmer's completed 69.5% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions so far this season. Part of that's because they haven't been great rushing the football, but Illinois ranks 94th allowing 4.8 YPC. Illinois can't run the ball either, but Minnesota defends it well allowing less than 4 YPC. The Illini also rank 103rd in opponent completion % so Brosmer should remain highly efficient and help keep Minnesota ahead of the chains.
3:30PM EST: Michigan +15 (3 Units).
Oregon's new to the Big 10 and despite playing 5 conference games, they really haven't seen much of their physical pro style teams. Purdue and Illinois aren't any good and UCLA was also with Oregon in the Pac-12 last year. Oregon went on the road to face MSU, the atypical Big 10 style and that was a lower scoring 31-10 Win. They played Ohio State at Home and gave up 467 yards, 326 passing and 141 rushing. They also struggled against Boise State’s downhill rushing attack, winning 37-34 on a game winning kick.
Michigan's the most physical downhill team that they'll face this year, and we have that presenting issues for the Ducks. The Wolverines aren't an elite bunch but they're 6-1 at Home allowing a respectable 20.7 Points and 323.3 Yards per game. The loss came against Texas, but they've also beaten a talented USC offense at Home. This will be the first big road game for the Ducks. Their 3 road games have come against (4-4) Oregon State, (2-5) UCLA, and (1-6) Purdue. All 3 venues combined wouldn't touch Ann Arbors atmosphere, especially against the #1 team in the Country. QB Dillon Gabriel transferred in this year and has thrown 5 picks in 5 conference games. This will be the first time they really have issues setting up protection and communicating at the LOS and Michigan DC Wink Martindale loves to bring pressure.
Just a few too many points. Michigan is going to show up and compete and their style of play really shortens games. Oregon's offense should face issues on the road and if Gabriel's turnover woes continue the Wolverines could catch some easy points.
