NCAAB
5 Picks (17 Units).
1PM: Wisconsin/Purdue Over 150.5 (5 Units)
Purdue's 8th is offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating. Wisconsin is 10th and 35th. Neither team operates up Tempo but Purdue's a significantly better offense at Home. They're averaging 84.8 points per game and rank 4th in the Nation in FG% at Home. Their pace does quicken at Home and part of that's from their defense. They average 14.8 opponent turnovers per game at Home compared to 11.9 on the road. Wisconsin's 26th in turnovers per game and we like them to beat the Purdue pressure defense at times. They'll also have a chance to clean up on the offensive glass as they have a significant edge in the size department. Purdue's just 255th in defensive rebounding %. Both teams can shoot the 3-Ball and it's a huge part of Wisconsin's game. They're 18th in 3-Point Rate and Purdue's 297th in opponent 3-PT Rate. The Badgers are going to fire away from deep early and often in this one. Long shots also create long rebounds which kickstart transition offense. We see a back-and-forth contest with some quick scoring barrages.
3:30PM EST: Georgia +2.5 (3 Units)
Georgia's played and competed at Home against some of the best teams in the SEC. Going back they lost by 1 to Mississippi State, beat LSU by 19, beat South Carolina by 11, lost to Auburn by 2, beat Oklahoma by 10, and beat Kentucky by 13. They're 5-1 ATS in Conference Play at Home. They also beat St. John's by 3 in the Bahama's earlier this season. Despite 9 losses they're still ranked 39th per KenPom. They're a physical team that plays tough defense and rebounds well. They're ranked 9th in rebound rate when playing at Home. It's the key edge in this game as Missouri is 116th in rebound rate at 51.3%. That also drops down to 47.3% when playing on the road, which is just terrible.
6PM EST: Providence +2.5 (3 Units).
Jekyll and Hyde for Nova's Home/Away splits. They're 12-3 at Home but 2-5 on the road. Those 2 road wins came against Depaul and Butler. Nova was able to escape with a 75-73 win at Home against Providence a Month ago as the Friars missed the game tying shot with 1 second remaining. Providence is reeling a bit having lost 4 straight games. They lost at St. John's by 3, lost to Creighton at Home but that was a competitive game down to the wire, and they also lost by 1 at Butler, missing the game winning shot. They're competing and this is a good spot at Home to get a decent win.
8PM EST: Illinois -6.5 (3 Units).
The Fighting Illini have had some consistency issues of late but part of that's been due to availability. They've had 3 starters each miss some time over the last few weeks but they're all good to go for today. Michigan State's a bit overrated and they've come back down to earth losing 3 of their last 4 games. Their SOS ranks 49th, which is considerably low for a Big 10 team. They've lost each of their last two road games to UCLA and USC with their offense really struggling. Their defense performed well but that's not something we expect to continue here. Unlike UCLA and USC, Illinois is elite on offensive, ranking 14th in ORtg. Illinois also won't play at Michigan State's preferred pace. Illinois is 13th in adjusted tempo and looking to run the floor. Every Spartan miss just gives Illinois a chance to beat their defense before it gets set. Illinois is no slouch on defense either, ranking 28th in DTrg. Michigan State's shooting just 42% over their last 4 games and it's hard to see them busting out of that shooting slump on the road. These two also rank 1st and 2nd in rebound rate. MSU outrebounded UCLA 41-24 and still lost.
8PM EST: Texas -3 (3 Units).
Kentucky is 2-5 on the road and their 77th ranked defense has a lot to do with it. This is a classic let down spot here coming off the big win over Tennessee, the 2nd time beating them this season. Texas just got blown out at home vs Alabama, a team Kentucky finds their equal. The Longhorns have a couple decent conference wins at Home over Texas A&M and Mizzu. They also played very competitive games down to the wire in their losses to both Auburn and Tennessee. Texas is a good shooting team and what they lack in rebounding they make up for by taking care of the Basketball. Texas is 51st in 3-PT % at 36.7% but that jumps to 39.4% at Home. Kentucky is 324th in opponent 3-PT Rate.
