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CBB
(1 Pick)
7:00PM EST: Houston/UCF Over 131.5 (3 Units)
Both teams are stronger defensively and that's why public money is pouring in on the Under. Reverse line movement in this one too with the line becoming even more favorable to Under bettors. There are a few things that should help drive this past the low total. For starters this Houston offense is plenty good enough to score on anybody. They're 14th in Adjusted Offense this season and that's a ranking they continue to climb in. Fouls and Offensive Rebounding should be a major contributor towards the Over. Houston's 260th and UCF 274th in fouls per Game. Houston is 309th and UCF 308th in opponent Free Throw Rate. Houston's 4th and UCF is 37th in offensive rebounds per game. Houston's 164th and UCF 76th in defensive rebounding %. The offensive boards will only play into the foul issues and free throws. Houston's defense isn't nearly as dominant on the road either. They allow just 49.8 points per game at Home but that jumps up to 66.3 Away. Only 1 of their road games have been decided by double digits and it was a 13-point loss at Kansas. This game is likely to see FT attempts at the end of the game and the Double Bonus is likely by then.
