CLE Guardians vs NY Yankees MLB Free Pick, Odds, Preview, Prediction, 10/11/22

MLB

(10/11/22) 7:37 PM Eastern.

Moneyline: Cleveland Guardians +175 / New York Yankees -205

Spread: Guardians +1.5 (-130) / Yankees -1.5 (+105)

Total: Over/Under 6.5

The American League Division series between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees is set to being at 7:37p.m. eastern time in the Bronx. The Guardians just defeated the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round while the New York Yankees had a bye courtesy of the number 2 seed.

Cleveland Guardians

The 27-year-old Cal Quantrill takes the mound in game 1 for the Guardians. He had a strong regular season, going 15-5 with a 3.38 era across 32 starts and 186.1 innings pitched. He’s been exceptional in his last 3 starts, allowing just 3 ER in 17 IP. He’s only made 1 post-season appearance before and it came in relief back in 2020, he recorded just 1 out while walking a batter.

The Guardians offense has ranked in the middle of the pack most of the season, they did however close out strong, outperforming their season average through the month of September and ranking 5th in the MLB in October to close out the regular season. They did struggle to score against the Rays, putting up just 3 runs in their 2 games but that ultimately proved enough.

The strength of this team lies in their bullpen, evident in their 1-0 win over the Rays in a 15-inning game. They owned the 2nd best bullpen ERA in the 2nd half of the season. There are 5 pitchers with sub 3 era’s coming out of this bullpen and Emmanuel Clase has been the best reliver in the American League.

New York Yankees

The $324 Million Dollar man, Gerrit Cole, starts for New York. He’s failed to live up to that contract and I’m sure most Yankee fans would have rather seen Nestor Cortes open this series but games like this is why they paid Gerrit Cole. It’s not like he’s been bad, he made 33 starts, pitching to a 3.5 era across 200.2 innings and broke the Yankees single season strikeout record in the process. He just hasn’t been the shutdown ace NY expected. He wasn’t great to end the season either, allowing 4 earned runs in 3 of his final 5 starts. The last time he took the mound in the post-season was against the Red Sox last year, he lasted just 2 innings and allowed 3 ER.

The Yankees offense was on fire to open the season, but then disappeared for quite a bit. Decimated by injuries it looked like they might choke away one of the most historic starts in MLB history. Sure enough as the reinforcements started coming back the bats got going, ranking 5th in the MLB through September and October. Aaron Judge will do his thing, but Giancarlo Stanton is heating up. In his final 3 regular season games he’s hit 3 homeruns in just 9 at bats. Gleybar Torres is on fire as well, hitting .383. with a 1.104 OPS his last 15 games.

The Pick

NYY/CLE Over 6.5. Gerrit Cole has struggled lately, he’s allowed 4 ER in 3 of his final 5 starts, 3ER, and 2ER. The last time he started in the post-season he lasted just 2 innings and surrendered 3ER. On the other hand, Cal Quantrill of the Guardians has never started a game in the post-season before. Pitching at Yankee stadium during the post-season is a tall order for Veteran pitchers, let alone first timers. The Yankees offense is getting hot at the right time, Aaron Judge has gotten his all year, Stanton’s hit 3 Homeruns in his last 3, Torres is hitting .383 with a 1.104 OPS his last 15, Higashioka has an OPS of 1.197 his last 6, and left-handed slugger Matt Carpenter has just returned. The Guardians are a very young team going into one of the most hostile post-season environments in MLB history, they’re going to rattle. It’s a large reason why the Over is 7-2 the last 9 Yankee playoff games, and 5-2 their L7 divisional round home playoff games. The Over is also 11-4 the Yankees L15 and 6-2 in the Guardians last 8. The Over has hit in 4 of the last 5 when these two have met in New York.