MLB (4/13/25)
 

4:10PM EST: Brewers/Diamondbacks Under 8.5 -120 (5U).
 

MIL SP Freddy Peralta has a 2.0 ERA and a 2.37 xERA. He's been lights out allowing an opponent Ba of just .142. In his 2 road starts he's allowed a combined 3ER and all via solo homerun. Chase Field is the tale of 2 ballparks and it's all about the roof being open or closed. Ball flies when it opens but with the Arizona heat it rarely is. It'll be closed today as it'll be 90°+ for the start of this game. Chase Field is 24th in HR Factor over the last 3 years and that's accounting for when it's open. Peralta has also dominated these Diamondbacks, limiting them to a .185 BA in 60 career plate appearances. He has a .84 ERA in 5 career games (21.1 IP) and 3 starts vs Arizona.
 

AZ SP Zac Gallen has had some struggles at Home this year which is something considering he has a 3.08 ERA in 71 career starts at Chase Field. In each of his full seasons as a starter his ERA has been lower at home compared to on the road. He had a 3.36 ERA in 15 Starts at home last year and a 2.47 ERA in 16 starts in 2023. So far this season he he’s allowed 4ER in his first Home start and 5ER in the next. He tossed 6.2 scoreless innings at NYY with 13K's in his lone road start. The early home struggles are likely an anomaly, and they have had that roof open quite a bit through the early season. The vintage Zac Gallen performance is coming at home sooner rather than later.

MLB (4/12/25)

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3:05PM EST: Giants ML +120 (4 Units).​

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SF SP Jordan Hicks has a 2.38 ERA. He got hurt by a couple long balls in his most recent start but still allowed just 3 ER on 5.1 IP. He allowed just 1 hit over 6 shutout innings in his first start at Houston. The issue for Hicks throughout his career has been his innings limit. He doesn't hold up over the course of a season and was relegated to bullpen duties early in his career because of it. He went back to starting for SF last year and didn't allow more than 3ER until his 12th start of the season. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball for the first two Months. He really doesn't need to be too great here. The Giants bullpen is 2nd in ERA at 1.75. 4 separate relievers have yet to allow a run and Ryan Walker's allowed just 1. With last night's game getting called early only one Giants reliever has pitched the last two days. It was Spencer Bivens (5.79 ERA). The Yankees still needed 4 relievers after getting just 2 outs from Starter Marcus Stroman.​

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NYY SP Will Warren gave up 4ER on 4IP at PIT his last time out. In his first start of the season, he allowed 2 ER on 5 IP vs Arizona. He didn't give up a HR in his most recent start but he did in his first and that's been an issue for him. He allowed 5 HR on 6 Games and 5 Starts last season. He allowed 2 HR in each of his last 2 spring training starts this year as well. Yankees stadium isn't the ballpark for him and the Giants now lead the league in AB/HR on the road after last night.

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MLB (4/19/24)

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1 Pick

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7:40PM EST: Royals ML +115 (3 Units) ✅

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BAL Starter Dean Kremer has been hit hard and we cashed in on that in his most recent start against Milwaukee. He allowed 8 runs (6ER) on 10 hits and a walk over 4IP. He has a 6.4 xERA, .302 xBA, and .615 xSLG. His first start of the season came at home against these Royals, allowing 3 ER over 5.1 IP. KC has been great at home, averaging the 3rd most runs per game at 6.1 batting .273 with an .805 OPS.

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KC starter Alec Marsh has a 4.32 ERA, 3.9 xERA, .234 opponent BA, and 1.08 WHIP. He opened the season with a 7-inning gem at Baltimore, surrendering just 1 run on 2 hits. The Orioles offense has done most of its damage via the longball this year. Kauffman stadium is not Homerun friendly and ranks 24th in HR park Factor. It's one of the larger ballparks and as a result is hitter friendly in every aspect outside the Homer. It's also low 50° temps with light winds blowing in today. Marsh has a stellar 1.62 BB/9 and has issued just 1 walk in each of his first 3 starts too. He doesn't hurt himself and that'll help if Baltimore leaves the park.

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The Royals have played very good baseball to start the season and are 12-7 compared to the Orioles 12-6. KC is also 8-2 so far at Home. Bullish on this Royals team. Fully expect them to be relevant this season and in playoff talks towards the end of the year. Great young talent on this roster that's been producing since the 2nd half of last season.

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MLB (4/12/24).

3 Picks.

 

6:40PM EST: MIN/DET Under 7 ❌

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MIN SP Pablo Lopez is one of the better pitchers in baseball. He has a 2.84 ERA after his first 2 starts with a .217 opponent BA and .87 WHIP. He's made 2 career starts against the Tigers and both of them in Detroit. They came last season, and he allowed a combined 3 ER in 13 IP. He has a .165 xBA and .199 xwOBA in 65 career plate appearances against this current Tigers team. The Tigers rank 26th in OPS so far this season and have scored a combined 15 runs while hitting .229 with a .642 OPS over their last 5 games.

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Tigers SP Tarik Skubal has the stuff to push for a Cy Young if he can remain healthy. He had a 3.52 ERA in 21 starts in 2022 and a 2.8 in 15 starts last year. He has a 2.92 ERA after 2 starts this year but an xERA of 1.7 and opponent BA of .159. He was stung by a couple long balls in his most recent start. He hasn't pitched against MIN since 2022 but he's pitched 12 consecutive shutout innings against them in his last two. He also has a career 3.13 ERA when pitching at Comerica Park. The Twins have the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the Bigs averaging just 2.9 runs per game.

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Both of these bullpens got reloaded from Thursday's game being postponed too. The Twins bullpen ranks 2nd with a 1.35 ERA and the Tigers 3rd with a 1.47 ERA.

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7:07PM EST: Rockies ML +210 (3 Units) ✅

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Colorado's early season struggles stem from absolutely terrible pitching. Offensively they're 15th in OPS while Toronto's down at 23rd. Ryan Feltner is starting for Colorado, and he's pitched well to start the season. He has a 3.27 ERA (2.66 xERA), .179 opponent BA, and 1.0 WHIP. He dominated the Rays in his last start, allowing just 1 Run on 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10 over 6 innings. Being in the NL he's never pitched against the Blue Jays before. The Blue Jays roster has just 11 total Plate appearances against Feltner and have a .111 Batting Average. Unfamiliarity will always benefit the pitcher.

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Kevin Gausman starts for Toronto and that's usually bad news for opposing teams, but he's been awful and a near 2MPH Velo Drop is the reason why. He got solid results in his season debut against TB recording just 13 outs but was incredibly lucky as the Rays went 1-5 on HH balls. He got blasted for 6 runs over 1.1 IP against the Yankees his last time out. He has a 17.68 xERA (3rd worst), 18.5% Brls/PA (3rd worst), 52.9 Hard-Hit %, .347 xBA (17th worst), .787 xSLG (3rd worst), and .554 xwOBA (3rd worst). Having pitched for SF a couple season's the Rockies roster has 75 career plate appearances against Gausman too and have a solid .265 BA. Gausman's far from elite and even a Triple A lineup would hit him around if he continues to pitch this way. He's averaged nearly 190 innings pitched in each of the last 3 seasons, is in his 12th season, and 33 years old. It's possible that's all catching up to him and we'll monitor this moving forward. Plenty of elite pitchers have shown the ability to adjust to Velo drops later in their career but it's usually not pretty as first.

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10:10PM EST: Padres ML +170 (3 Units) ✅ 

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Michael King starts for the Padres. He wasn't great in his first two starts but a minor mechanical adjustment returned him to form in start number 3. He threw 7 shutout innings allowing just 4 hits and walking 1 at San Francisco. He had a 2.75 ERA last year and a 2.29 in 2022. When he's on he's one of the best. The Dodgers lineup has also been human lately, hitting .240 with a .691 OPS over the last week (5 Games). King's more than capable of handling this Dodgers lineup even on their best day. The top 4 SD bullpen arms have all allowed just 1 run with at least 6 innings pitched this season. They're also fresh from the day off yesterday.

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Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start for the Dodgers. He got blasted by these Padres for 5 runs recording just 3 outs in his MLB debut during the Korea series. He hasn't allowed a run over his last 2 starts and 10 innings pitched though. Bit more MLB tape on Yamamoto now and there's a level of familiarity having faced him before. Padres also rank 6th in OPS over the last week. They've scored 9 and 10 runs in their most recent 3-Game set as well.